I’ll never forget how hyperpartisan MAGA supporters weaponized the deaths of the 13 service members lost during the Afghanistan withdrawal—using them to dunk on political opponents and project partisan blame. Suddenly there were displays of 13 flags in yards everywhere, as if this were uniquely the worst military tragedy in U.S. history. Some people still have those flags up. It was gross then, it’s a display of complete hypocrisy now (although it was then for those of us who see through their pearl clutching bullshit).
Meanwhile, by most accounts, six U.S. soldiers have died so far following a drone strike on a command center in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait in this latest conflict with Iran. So when do the extra six flags go up? Or do those deaths not count because this war is inconvenient to acknowledge, even though it was entirely unnecessary and rooted in decisions that could have been avoided if Trump hadn’t torn up the goddamn Iran nuclear agreement in the first place? It’s almost like that was done so this could happen some day.
What’s even worse is it seems like there is no end plan. They’re going to “let the Iranian people decide the path forward” which seems like a bold idea considering those people are currently in the streets chanting “Death to America.” Before we get angry about that, we should consider what it must feel like to have your country invaded unprovoked. Civilian deaths have surpassed 700 in Iran already.
This is another big reason why it’s really freaking important we understand if Trump’s petty anti-Obama tearing up of the Iran Nuclear Agreement would have prevented this.
Let’s Actually Check Both Sides
The case for “yeah, the deal probably would’ve helped”
It slammed the brakes on the bomb clock.
When the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was alive and kicking, Iran’s nuclear “breakout time” stayed comfortably over a year. Fast-forward to early 2026 and we’re talking weeks or months. That’s not a rounding error—that’s a free fall.
It wasn’t just vibes—there were receipts.
The International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly confirmed Iran was following the rules before the U.S. pulled out in 2018. Enrichment capped, centrifuges limited, inspectors on site. Boring? Yes. Effective? Also yes.
It kept the bombs holstered.
The whole point of the deal was to give diplomacy a fighting chance so the United States or Israel didn’t feel cornered into blowing up nuclear facilities as a “last resort.”
Sunlight is underrated.
The agreement opened Iran’s nuclear program to aggressive international inspections. Less mystery, fewer panic spirals, lower odds of someone misreading intel and starting a war by accident.
The case for “this was always going to blow up eventually”
The clock was always ticking.
Those infamous “sunset clauses” meant the strictest limits expired over time. Critics say the deal didn’t kill Iran’s nuclear ambitions—it just hit snooze.
Nukes weren’t the only problem.
Opponents argued sanctions relief gave Iran more cash to throw at proxy groups and missile programs. Even if the nuclear file stayed quiet, the region could still catch fire.
You can’t unlearn physics.
During the deal, Iran gained technical know-how it can’t un-gain. Once the agreement started unraveling, that knowledge made it easier to ramp things back up fast.
Trust, but… really verify.
Even at the deal’s peak, skeptics worried about undeclared sites and activities. The inspections were intrusive—but maybe not omniscient—which left room for doubt and conspiracy theories to fester.
Where I stand
War fucking sucks. And no, none of the smug “well, this was always going to blow up eventually” takes magically justify ripping up the agreement in the first place. Spare me the sales pitch that this was necessary, inevitable, or somehow provoked by the laws of physics. The people defending this can’t even articulate what the plan forward is—just vibes, buzzwords, and a depressing sense of déjà vu.
Except this time, it’s being run by a commander-in-chief who’s a deeply unhinged egomaniac with a résumé stacked higher than Everest with fraud, corruption, and cozying up to Iran’s allies which feels like contrived dog and pony show bullshit, alongside a Defense Secretary best known for yelling on Fox News for a living. This isn’t some grim rerun of Bush/Cheney and Rumsfeld. It’s the bargain-bin reboot—less strategy, more brain worms, probably a higher body count risk even with today’s technology that prevents it.
Putting these maniacs back in the white house is going to go down as the one of the biggest most baffling mistakes in world history.