So, there I was as this October came to a close, clinging to the edge of my seat and holding my breath, just waiting for this election’s October Surprise to strike. You know, that election-eve haymaker that always seems to show up and sucker-punch the public just as early voting is in full swing. And yet…here we are, it’s November, and the most “October Surprise” thing that happened was the T***p campaign hiring a comedian to insult Puerto Ricans. Classy, right? Nothing says “vote for me” quite like offending an entire demographic.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, an October Surprise is one of those late-breaking election twists—one part circus, one part plot twist—that flips the narrative or sends one campaign scrambling to do damage control. It’s a tradition as American as apple pie, albeit with a dash of impending voter whiplash. But if a comedian hurling insults was supposed to be this year’s pièce de résistance, the folks behind the scenes are clearly running low on creativity. For a little historical flavor, let’s look back at some real October Surprises. You know, the ones that weren’t self-inflicted.
Classic October Surprises:
- 1972 – “Peace is at Hand” (Or Is It?)
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger pulled a smooth one, announcing that “peace is at hand” in the Vietnam War right before the election. Voters ate it up; Nixon looked like a hero… for about five minutes, until everyone realized “peace” was about as close as their next tax refund. - 1980 – Iran Hostage Crisis, No Hostages Released
With hostages still held in Iran, President Jimmy Carter looked like he was caught holding the bag on international diplomacy. When the hostages didn’t make it home, Reagan basically walked into the Oval Office without needing to break a sweat. Moral of the story? If you’re a sitting president, don’t have a hostage crisis near an election. - 2000 – Bush’s Secret DUI Gets Unearthed
Just before the 2000 election, a judge dug up a DUI George W. Bush got in the ’70s. It was scandalous for about five seconds before people collectively shrugged and thought, “Eh, it’s the Bush family.” But in an election where a few hundred votes mattered, it was the kind of juicy tidbit that kept both sides on edge. - 2004 – The Boogeyman Makes A Cameo
On October 29, the Arabic news agency Al Jazeera dropped the ultimate “guest star” bombshell: a video of Osama bin Laden himself. In what felt like the worst possible cameo appearance, bin Laden not only took responsibility for 9/11 but also decided it was time to play political commentator, calling out the Bush administration and throwing shade on America’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He even delivered a line straight out of an action movie trailer: “Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al-Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands.” This message might as well have had a neon “Vote for Bush” sign flashing in the background, as it reminded everyone that the War on Terror was far from over—just in time for Bush’s campaign to catch a convenient popularity boost. - 2016 – Comey’s Email Kaboom
In a move straight out of a telenovela, FBI Director James Comey sent a little love note to Congress about “new developments” in Hillary Clinton’s email saga. Those undecided voters got a nice, late-breaking scandal to ponder, and the rest is history… and also the source of about 3,000 political podcasts. - 2020 – Hunter’s laptop
An October 14 article by the New York Post related to emails found on an external hard drive of a laptop computer belonging to Joe Biden’s son Hunter was considered to be an October surprise, but it was a bit of a dud that most people didn’t take very seriously. Building credibility is still important, I guess.
And Now, 2024: The Self-Inflicted “Surprise”
So, when a campaign whips up an October Surprise against itself, it’s worth a slow clap. A comedian making Puerto Rican jokes? Really? Seems like we’re entering an era where campaigns rely less on game-changing secrets and more on awkward, last-minute fumbles. So maybe we’re moving past surprise scandals altogether and embracing surprise bloopers as the strategy du jour.
Anyway, I can finally stop holding my breath—and start holding a fresh beer. Cheers to Election Season 2024, the era where “Surprises” are more self-inflicted than shocking.
Here’s to hoping I didn’t just jinx the whole thing and something big is going to drop tonight or tomorrow. I mean, the whole election voting and counting and conceding/non-conceding/transition of power process is sure to be painful and chaotic as it is.
